Michael Lewis, New Orleans native and author of bestsellers “Moneyball,” “The Blind Side,” and “Liar’s Poker,” speaking at the Schwab Impact 2013 conference in Washington D.C.
What a great investment quote!
Every time someone looks at the investment headlines (the market going up, the market crashing down, the tech bubble, the real estate bubble) and says that “you should have seen it coming,” just remember Lewis’ quote. With hindsight, it always seems so obvious that only an idiot could miss the signs.
But don’t fool yourself. Those “obvious” signs are apparent only in retrospect.
The moral of the story? Timing the market and forecasting trends looks both obvious and easy. Too bad it isn’t! In fact, it’s so not easy and so not obvious that it just can’t be done consistently or successfully.